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Capital
®
Volume 25 Number 17
Capital Dynamics Sdn Bhd
5
Professional & business services
-3
7
-3
Education & health services
14
30
40
Leisure & hospitality
-1
49
17
Government
7
-14
7
In Oct, personal income fell US$10.8 bln, or 0.1% from Sep, to a SAAR of US$14,290.1 bln. The fall
was due mainly to a contraction in proprietor’s income – see
table 6
. Nominal and real disposable
personal income (DPI) each fell by 0.2%, month-on-month, in Oct. On a year-on-year basis, personal
income in Oct rose by 3.4%, while DPI and real DPI gained by 2.6% and 1.8% respectively. The
broad-based recovery in employment bode well for a steady improvement in income growth.
Table 6: Personal income
(change from preceding month, US$ bln)
Aug 2013
Sep 2013
Oct 2013
Personal income
74.3
64.3
-10.8
Wage & salary disbursements
41.1
25.6
9.0
Proprietor’s income
15.6
22.1
-19.7
Rental income
5.1
6.3
2.4
Interest income
-0.9
-1.0
1.2
Dividend income
-1.6
4.3
-5.3
Personal current transfer receipts
15.6
6.7
0.6
In Oct, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.3%, month-on-month, to a SAAR of
US$11,582.9 bln – see
table 7
. On a year-on-year basis, PCE increased by 2.8%. Meanwhile, real
PCE increased by 0.3%, month-on-month, and 2.1%, year-on-year. The savings rate in Oct fell from
5.2% in Sep to 4.8%. The steady increase in consumption expenditures reflects rising consumer
confidence over the economic recovery.
Table 7: Consumer spending
(% change from prior month)
Aug 2013
Sep 2013
Oct 2013
Consumer spending
0.3
0.2
0.3
Durable goods
1.4
-1.4
0.6
Non-durable goods
-0.2
0.6
0.3
Services
0.3
0.4
0.2
The seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ending 30 Nov 2013 dropped by 23,000 from the
previous week to 298,000, while its 4-week moving average declined by 10,750 from the previous
week to register at 322,250. At the same time, continuing jobless claims for the week ending 23 Nov
2013 registered at a seasonally adjusted 2.744 mln, a decline of 21,000 from the previous week, while
the 4-week moving average dropped by 32,500 to 2.796 mln from the previous week.
China
The consumer price index (CPI) in Nov slipped 0.1%, month-on-month, but rose 3.0%, year-on-year –
see
table 8
. The moderation in inflation rate was due mainly to a slower increase in food prices. Non-
food prices were flat, month-on-month, but rose 1.6%, year-on-year. Excluding food and energy, the
CPI was flat, month-on-month, but rose 1.8%, year-on-year. This shows that inflationary pressures
remained benign.
In Jan-Nov 2013, the CPI rose 2.6% from the same period a year ago, way below the target of 3.5%
set by the government.
Table 8: Consumer Price Index
% change from the prior year
Sep 2013
Oct 2013
Nov 2013
Total
3.1
3.2
3.0
Food
6.1
6.5
5.9
Tobacco, liquors & articles
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
Clothing
2.3
2.4
2.0
Household apparatus & maintenance services
1.4
1.5
1.3
Medicines, medical care, & personal articles
1.1
1.0
1.0
Transportation & communications
-0.2
-0.6
-0.5
Recreational, educational & cultural services
1.9
2.5
2.8
Residence
2.6
2.6
2.6
China recorded another big trade surplus of US$33.8 bln Nov, with exports posting a record high of
US$202.2 bln, up 12.7% from a year ago. Meanwhile, imports rose 5.3% to US$168.4 bln. Such
favourable performance was supported by firm demand from China’s major trading partners, with
exports to the US, EU, South Korea, ASEAN, and Russia all posting double-digit increases. This
should help to ensure a stable GDP growth in 4Q 2013.